Global Warming-Myth or Reality-The Erring Ways of Climatology by Marcel Leroux

Author:Marcel Leroux [Leroux, Marcel]
Format: epub
Tags: Climatology
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2010-02-27T19:22:45+00:00

CONTROL THE EVOLUTION OF TEMPERATURE

The IPCC maintains that the evolution of temperature is controlled bythe levels of concentration of emissive gases in the atmosphere. Various arguments are put forward in support of its stance: palaeoclimatological evidence (Chapter 9), the

`hockeystick' curve for the last thousand years (Figure 43), and the òcial' curve of global temperature anomalies since 1860 (Figure 46). What is the validityof these proofs, which are said to be ìrrefutable'?

. Palaeoclimatology does not show any causal link between greenhouse gases and temperature, but proves, on the contrary, that it is temperature (which is itself determined byother factors) which indirectlycauses, with some delay, variations 240 The observational facts: Present temperatures

[Ch. 10

in the levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. Even if the concentration of these gases later intervenes, to enhance the greenhouse effect, this has absolutelyno effect upon the initial process.

.

The `hockey stick' curve (Figure 43) hastilyadopted bythe IPCC ± following a reversal in thinking and a denial of previous climatological research ± has not been validated. It deliberately distorts the last 1,000 years of climatic history, a millennium which has nevertheless been well documented (Figure 42).

.

A comparison of Figure 32, which shows the variation in CO2 levels over the last 1,000 years, and Figure 42, which con®rms the existence of the MWP and the LIA, reveals that there is no causal `relationship' between the respective evolutions. The absence of anyvariation in CO2 levels (in Figure 32) cannot really explain the important climatic changes experienced in the millennium in question: most notablythe warm episode of the MWP and the verycold episode of the LIA, during which CO2 levels show (apparently) no change.

.

The highlydubious juxtaposition (Figure 43) of a long section of the curve, based on (uncon®rmed) estimated temperatures, and a shorter section based on `reconstituted' (and equallydebatable) temperatures, does not demonstrate the so-called èxceptional' nature of temperatures in recent times. Observations reveal, though, that this period is not as exceptional as the IPCC would have us believe!

.

The òf®cial' curve for the evolution of mean global temperature (`reconstituted') for the period since 1860 (Figure 46), the climatic signi®cance of which has not been analysed, is also very debatable. The reasons for this are many, chief among them being the reliability or otherwise of the data, and the urban in¯uence question. This curve does not correspond to the evolution of greenhouse gas concentrations, and the comparison does not even demonstrate a co-variation during the whole of the period analysed:

± from 1918 to 1940: a marked temperature rise, but onlyan insigni®cant rise in CO2 levels;

± from 1940 to 1970: a fall in temperature, but a marked rise in CO2 levels; and

± since the 1980s: a marked temperature rise (RCO) and a marked rise in CO2

levels.

.

It can therefore be seen that, in the course of the thousands of years mentioned in both the previous and the present chapters, there is onlyone short period, the RCO, about 20 years long, for which one might claim some hypothetical `relationship' between changes in greenhouse gas levels and the evolution

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